China's economic recovery in the eyes of entrepreneurs, bankers
Chinese entrepreneurs and bankers have become more upbeat about the macroeconomy, and urban residents are more optimistic about future income and jobs in the third quarter as the economy is recovering solidly, central bank surveys have found.
Both the entrepreneurs and bankers' macroeconomic heat indexes, reflecting the two groups' judgment on the current macroeconomic situation, climbed quarter on quarter, according to the People's Bank of China (PBOC).
In the July-September period, the entrepreneur macroeconomic heat index stood at 26.9 percent, while the bankers' macroeconomic heat index reversed a downward trend to reach 19.9 percent, up 2.1 percentage points from the second quarter.
Of the over 5,000 industrial companies surveyed nationwide, 52.2 percent considered the macroeconomic climate "normal," up from 51.5 percent in April-June, the central bank said.
A heavy truck undergoes a test on the assembly line of the heavy truck capacity expansion project at the Shaanxi Automobile Holding Group in Xi'an, northwest China's Shaanxi Province, Sept. 27, 2022. (Xinhua/Liu Xiao)
DEMAND ON UPSWING
Export and domestic orders alike improved quarter on quarter. The export order index was 42.2 percent in the third quarter, up 1.2 percentage points from a quarter ago, while the domestic order index increased 3.8 percentage points to 44.8 percent.
The rebound was in line with the improvement in the sub-index for new orders of the September purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector, which rose 0.6 points from August to 49.8 as demand continued to improve.
Workers operate at an intelligent production base of the Great Wall Motors in Yongchuan District of Chongqing, southwest China, Sept. 22, 2022. (Xinhua/Wang Quanchao)
Amid the warmer sentiment, enterprises are demanding more loans. The PBOC said the overall loan demand index gained 2.4 percentage points from the previous quarter to 59 percent in the third quarter.
By sectors, the loan demand index of the manufacturing sector improved one percentage point to 60.6 percent, while that for the infrastructure, wholesale and retail sectors increased to 61.3 percent, and 56.3 percent, respectively.
INCOME IMPROVEMENT
After interviewing some 20,000 depositors in 50 cities across the country, the central bank found that more urban residents have seen increased income in the past quarter.
The income sentiment index for the third quarter was 47 percent, up 2.5 percentage points from the previous quarter, while the income confidence index was 0.8 percentage points higher at 46.5 percent, according to the PBOC.
People visit Sanfangqixiang (Three Lanes and Seven Alleys), an ancient block, in Fuzhou, southeast China's Fujian Province, Oct. 6, 2022. (Xinhua/Zhou Yi)
Among all the depositors who responded to the survey, 12.2 percent of them said their income has increased, up 1.4 percentage points from a quarter ago, and 69.7 percent of them felt no significant change in income.
Also, while those in favor of more savings still took the lion's share, the depositors surveyed have expressed a stronger will to invest. Up to 19.1 percent of them said they were inclined to make more investments, 1.2 percentage points higher than in the second quarter.
Notably, about 14.8 percent of the respondents expect an uptrend in house prices, and 17.1 percent said they planned to spend more on house purchases in the fourth quarter, slightly higher than 16.9 percent in the second quarter.
UPBEAT OUTLOOK
For the next quarter, entrepreneurs, bankers, and urban households all expressed confidence in the economy. The PBOC said the bankers' macroeconomic heat expectation index is projected at 29.7 percent, 9.8 percentage points higher than that of the third quarter.
On the job front, despite a slight decrease in this quarter's employment sentiment index, the employment expectation index went up 0.8 percentage points to 45.3 percent.
Aerial panoramic photo taken on Sept. 26, 2022 shows the eastern living area of Yangpu Economic Development Zone in south China's Hainan Province. (Xinhua/Pu Xiaoxu)
The price expectation index for the next quarter rose marginally by 0.6 percentage points from the previous quarter to 61 percent. Specifically, 28.1 percent of the depositors surveyed expected prices to rise, while 52.1 percent anticipated little change.
However, according to the entrepreneurs, the product selling price sentiment index and the raw material purchasing price sentiment index declined significantly both on a quarterly and yearly basis.
China's overall price level has been kept in a reasonable range this year, said Niu Yubin, an official with the National Development and Reform Commission.
Despite rising imported inflation pressure, in the first eight months of this year, China's consumer price index grew only 1.9 percent year on year, much lower than the 8.3 percent for the United States, and 7.6 percent for the eurozone, according to Niu.